Advice Example

19th June 2024 

18:15pm Royal Ascot, The Norfolk Stakes 

Advice: Ain’t Nobody 0.5pt EW @ 13.00 generally available 

Selection Analysis 

I currently make the selection on my forecast tissue price as being no bigger than 7.50, and that’s being on the generous side, so the current 13.00 that is generally available at the time of writing seems more than fair when you consider the following relevant “weighted” factors, that appear to be very much in his favour for this assignment.  

He recorded a very decent time on his winning debut for a 2yo at that time of the year (Last day in May), just 0.24secs slower than the following race over the same course and distance. Being 0.24 slower, therefore representing in length terms, equating to roughly 1.1/4 lengths on that stiff natured track over the minimum distance according to my track/distance time charts on that type of going. 

The winner of the race that followed the selections debut win, won off a rating of 79, yet was a 3yo and both the selection and the 3yo (Angel Shared) both raced off the same weight of 9st 7lb for their respective races.  

Given that I make to my historical quantitative and qualitative data analysis from 1997 onwards, that a 3yo and the selection were to meet in a hypothetical scenario were they to meet at that time of year, either at the end of May or early June would expect to concede around 31lb in weight, which would imply that the selection has run close to a rating of 109, therefore better than the average rating required by a 2yo to win a listed race at Royal Ascot over the minimum distance based on all past winners of this specific race. Furthermore, I couldn’t find another runner in this field that met this requirement yet, going back to 1997. 

There are other positive weighting factors that are worth touching upon. We know from yesterday’s result in the Group One King Stand Stakes, that the first two placed runners dominated the finish from high draws, 17 and 15 from the 16 runners that participated. More crucially, this field contains 27 runners, so unlike the King Stands race, the runners are less likely to congregate as a pack down the middle to far side, with those drawn very high likely to stick the near side of the track on ground that has yet to be raced on, my interpretation of those drawn high over the minimum distance in races containing more than 25 runners on this track when the ground is racing on the fast side has shown to be a distinct advantage, in particular when no other races beforehand have yet to have that opportunity for that situation to arise from historical evidence, arguably due to running on fresh non trodden ground. 

The selection is drawn 27 from 27 runners so is nearest to the stand side rail and Jamie Spencer is booked, that would be a positive from my perspective. He has his critics, but take in isolation his record in fast run races given his tendency riding style, ie; usually held up in large field events, on a straight course would show that he has an actual expectation rate of 1.27, hence his results are just over 25% than they should be in relation to the probability of chance based on market expectation, indicating that he is better suited in judging pace when it’s strong and honest from the outset and there are no bends to negotiate.  

Finally, going through the breeding profile (On both sides of the family up to three generations back) of each runner contesting this event, makes interesting reading. The Selection’s sire is Sands Of Mali, who was arguably unlucky not to win the Group One Commonwealth Cup where 22 runners took part in 2018 at the Royal Ascot meeting when just failing to catch the winner from an uncompromising position, he later proved that run was no fluke when he next returned to Ascot at the highest level later on that year. The dam, Burmese Waltz was an unconsidered 23.00 shot in her only race that she contested at Ascot which occurred at the Royal meeting in the competitive Wokingham Stakes containing 19 runners, finishing strongly to gain 2nd spot close home. If there is a horse in this line up that is bred to appreciate a fast run large field race at the Royal meeting, then it’s the selection that ticks the boxes on all fronts.  

All things considered, the 12/1 generally available Each Way to 5 places seems more than fair.